This is an incredibly important year as 83 countries around the globe head to the polls. This represents 4 billion people, approximately 50% of the global population. As speculation dominates the news about the potential outcomes of the 2024 presidential elections, one thing seems increasingly clear to me: former President Donald Trump faces significant challenges in his bid for a return to the White House. While political results can shift dramatically, several key factors indicate that Trump’s path to victory may be more difficult than celebrated by recent polls and news. Let’s dig deeper and look into the data and why Trump is unlikely to secure another term in office.
- US Economic Performance: America’s economic indicators are robust and continue to outperform expectations. Unemployment rates are at a historic low, marking a 40-year record. This strong job market reflects positively on the current administration and may sway voters to seek continuity rather than change.
- Financial Performance: Wall Street is showing its best results ever with the S&P 500 crossing 5000 for the first time ever in intraday trading, the latest milestone for a U.S. stock market powered by a resilient economy and subsiding inflation. Part of these records are due to big Tech stocks carrying record high performance, led by Meta, and Amazon. This financial strength is a boon for workers and keeps the risk of a recession low. However, it could delay interest rate cuts by keeping some upward pressure on inflation.
- US Energy Leadership: The United States has emerged as a global leader in energy production (with over 13 million barrels of oil per day), boasting the title of the largest oil producer and a significant investor in renewable energy initiatives. This helps keep gas prices low, while making the US a leader in the global green-growth transition. This dual focus on traditional and sustainable energy sources aligns with evolving global priorities (deglobalization being one) and positions the nation for long-term economic growth and stability.
- Stable Financial Environment: With decreasing borrowing costs and inflation rates (even though we may have to wait until June for an interest rate cut by the Central Bank), the 11 consecutive interest rate hikes…